Diagnosing stock-assessment model misspecification with machine learning
Simulation-estimation experiments testing whether multivariate diagnostics can identify structural sources of stock-assessment misspecification.
Research question: How do population processes, productivity, and model assumptions shape inference about the state and dynamics of exploited pelagic populations? Why it matters: Reliable assessment requires integrating biomass with recruitment, mortality, selectivity, and productivity while accounting for structural uncertainty in the models used for fisheries advice.
Simulation-estimation experiments testing whether multivariate diagnostics can identify structural sources of stock-assessment misspecification.
Research question: How do climate and oceanographic variability, natural forcing, fishing pressure, and their interactions alter productivity and the state of pelagic populations? Why it matters: Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems are highly variable, so separating environmental forcing from fishing effects is essential for detecting pressure-state relationships, thresholds, and regime changes.
Research question: How do reproduction, growth, and individual condition vary through time, and how do these life-history processes contribute to changes in pelagic population state? Why it matters: Maturity, spawning, growth, and condition can respond before biomass does, providing complementary information on population performance and resilience.
Research question: How do pelagic species, associated fauna, and non-target interactions vary across space and time, and which environmental processes shape habitat suitability and species distributions? Why it matters: Spatially explicit information from niche models, species distribution models, biodiversity observations, and bycatch patterns is needed to interpret ecosystem change and support spatial fisheries management.
Research question: How do pelagic fisheries reorganize through seasons, environmental variability, fleet behaviour, and management interventions, and how can those dynamics inform adaptive decisions? Why it matters: Fast changes in resource availability and fishing operations require diagnostics that separate ecological availability, biological risk, fishing pressure, and fleet response.
Historical comparison using season day, effective fishing day, quota progress, functional envelopes, analogue seasons, and environmental adjustment.
Long-term changes in species composition, effort, efficiency, seasonality, fleet structure, spatial footprint, and environmental context.
Systematic evidence synthesis evaluating management responses to environmental variability and climate change and their transferability to Peruvian anchovy.
Framework separating resource availability, biological risk, operational risk, and regulation using environmental and fishery information with hindcast validation.
Research question: How can statistical methods, reproducible workflows, and research software make complex marine and fisheries analyses more transparent, reusable, and auditable? Why it matters: Heterogeneous marine data and complex models create hidden analytical variation; reusable software and reproducible workflows improve validation, transferability, and scientific efficiency.
Potential software paper contingent on stable reuse, documentation, testing, and a defensible methodological contribution in the underlying fisheries-indicator framework.
Reusable architecture for operating, observation and estimation models, management procedures, closed-loop simulation, uncertainty scenarios, performance metrics, provenance, and reproducible MSE projects.
Reproducible acquisition, quality control, harmonization, derivation, cataloguing, provenance, and reuse of environmental data for fisheries and marine-ecology analyses across the Humboldt Current System.
Open educational book on portable, auditable and reproducible digital research workflows spanning data, code, automation, collaboration, R, Python, SQL, Quarto, and responsible use of AI in fisheries science and quantitative ecology.
Research catalogue. Each project card represents a canonical research repository or a stable public project record linked to its source repository. Formal publication, talk, software, teaching, and post metadata remain authoritative in their respective catalogues. Explore the public Research Graph to see these records connected through common themes, projects, repositories, and provenance.
Project-stage note. This catalogue includes active analyses, manuscripts in development, reusable research infrastructure, and planned studies. The stage shown on each card describes its current maturity; inclusion here does not imply that all projects are being pursued simultaneously.